Not Easy Like Sunday Morning – One Angry Canadian

Dear Donald Trump,

I am really angry this morning and I want to hurl a million insults at you (or at least 6,200 of them), but I am choosing not to. I’m realizing that insults can sometimes hurt others in the crossfire.

I’m not going to call you “fat”, because that would be insensitive to many people, including me, who struggle to stay at a healthy weight.

I’m not going to call you “stupid”, because that is insensitive to those who aren’t blessed with intelligence. 

I’m not going to call your wife a “hooker”, since it’s insulting to those who choose to make their living as sex workers. 

I’m not going to call your daughter and her husband “Nepotism Barbie and Slenderman”, because it devolves to the juvenile name calling that is your primary tool as a politician. 

But I will call you out on things that are indefensible for anyone – most especially, for the leader of what was (and what will be again) a great country. 

You are dishonest - you lie about everything and always have. From the days of pretending to be John Barron, to covering up your mob connections, to lying about the involvement of Russia and a million other things before and after, you are provably a liar. Before, it only hurt people you did business with. Now, it’s killing people, including those dying of COVID-19, members of the military and people of color who are killed by the hateful mob that you have allowed to crawl out from under their slimy rocks, while they call you “My Precious”.

You are uncaring - you didn’t care about the Central Park 5, you didn’t care about Puerto Rico, you don’t care about the kids you had put in cages, you don’t care about your sexual assault victims, you don’t care about those dying from COVID-19, you don’t care about Black Lives and you clearly don’t care about soldiers dying in Afghanistan due to your evil allies. 

You are cruel - you delight in and encourage police brutality, you insult war heroes because they were captured, you get excited about “dominating” mostly peaceful protesters, you tell American citizens of color to go back to where they came from and you let people die to avoid impacting your reëlection. 

You are corrupt - your dealings through the years with the Mafia in New York, money laundering for Russian mobsters and now, traitorous relationships with dictators in places like Russia, North Korea and Saudi Arabia, have left you unable to work on behalf of the United States. Your refusal to divest from your businesses and the likely fraudulent loans and tax evasion that you fight to keep secret, compromises every action you take. Your desire to avoid prosecution and jail colors every decision and forces you to surround yourself with morally bankrupt sycophants as you destroy the tenets of democracy and, in turn, the country. 

These things are not defensible. These things are why you’re unfit for office. These things are why you’re not even worthy of using up oxygen on our planet. These things are why a random guy from a neighboring country with a lot of friends and family in the US gets in a rage, when nothing else makes him this angry. These things are why a good portion of America wants you out of office. These things are the reason those same good people (and there are only good people on one side here) can’t understand how a not-insignificant portion of their country still adamantly supports you. These are the reasons why people are sick about how an entire once-respectable political party watches in silence as the country they are sworn to serve and protect crumbles, all because they’re worried about being on the wrong end of a mean Tweet and their reëlection chances. 

I’ll let you in on a secret - they have no chance at reëlection and neither do you. They have no chance at being written up in the history books as anything other than the corrupt, weak cowards that they are. And the many volumes in history about your failed reign will place you amongst the worst and most reviled figures in history. Because history will not be written by Bill Barr – he will not be the winner. It will be written by those who are reclaiming the country. By those that care about people in need, by those that know that Black Lives Matter, by those that know that the Dow doesn’t matter when grandma is on a ventilator. 

The only thing you did get right, ironically, is that America will be made great again. Just not by you.

Signed,

Your Pissed Off Canadian Cousin

Minutes from White House Staff Meeting of April 19, 2020

THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

CLASSIFIED

by order of the President

April 20, 2020

EYES ONLY
DO NOT COPY

MEMORANDUM OF TELEPHONE CONVERSATION 

SUBJECT:	White House Staff Meeting of April 19, 2020
PARTICIPANTS:	Mark Meadows, White House Chief of Staff Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States Michael Pence, Vice President of the United States Ivanka Trump, Special Adviser to the President Jared Kushner, Special Adviser to the President Donald Trump Jr., Idiot Notetakers from the White House Situation Room
DATE, TIME AND PLACE:	April 19, 2020, 9:03 - 9:33 a.m. EDT Zoom Web Conference

      

Mark Meadows: Welcome everyone to our first staff meeting via videoconference. We’re using Zoom at the recommendation of Senator Loeffler.

Now the first order of business is about all the people… dying… from… (eyes start to tear up)

The President: Meadows, are you crying already, you little crybaby? Can Trump get you a diaper? Seriously, would you like one? Mike can grab one off my desk.

Meadows: No, I’m fine. I forgot, I should do roll call first…

Eric Trump: I’m here!

Junior: Who the fuck invited Eric?

The President: Ya, he’s too ugly for Zoom!

Eric: I can make my background look like I’m in Florida!

Junior: You are in Florida, dipshit!

Eric: But I can’t go outside.

The President: Of course you can, you moron! Trump told that idiot DeSantis to open up the whole State. Go outside, breathe the fresh air, get close to people, grab some pussies…

Eric Trump: I can almost touch my elbow with my tongue…

The President: Meadows, stop crying and mute that idiot.

Meadows: Yes sir! (Mutes Eric who silently continues his antics on camera)

The President: Thank God… I mean, thank me that Tiffany isn’t on this thing. She’s way too fat and ugly to have on camera.

(Tiffany hangs up)

Meadows: (Awkward pause) Ivanka are you there?

Ivanka Trump: Yes, Mark. 

Meadows: Can you please turn on your video – with all of us remote, it helps us connect if we can see each other.

Ivanka: I can’t – I just got out of the shower. I don’t have anything on.

The President: Turn on the camera, Vanky!

Ivanka: No, Daddy!

The President: DADDY SAYS TURN ON THE CAMERA, VANKY!!

Ivanka: OK… (Turns on camera)

Mike Pence: Oh Jesus, Lord and Savior, my eyes are burning! I knew I shouldn’t be on a call with another woman. FORGIVE ME, MOTHER!! Why couldn’t it be Jared? (Pence slams his laptop shut and is disconnected).

The President: Looking good, sweetie! You remind me of Stormy, who reminded me of you.

Junior: Ewwww, turn off your video, Iskanka!

(Ivanka turns off video)

The President: Damn it! (Yelling at someone off camera) Deborah! Debbie! Trump made a little mess. Can you get a new pair of Trump’s special undies? (Inaudible question asked off camera) It was the mushroom side. And maybe a little on the other side, too. Hurry, Deb!

Meadows: Um…errrr…OK, I guess we should continue talking about key issues now…

Junior: I want to talk about the pardon for the Tiger guy!

Meadows: Umm… I don’t think that this is the most pressing thing facing…

Junior: It’s just that I loved that show! Every time I saw it, I got aroused…

The President: Did someone say aroused? That is a great word…

Junior: I got excited because I saw these beautiful, strong, majestic animals who should be running free in the jungle so that I could shoot them. They don’t think they’re so powerful after I shoot them in the face! Meadows, are you crying again?

Meadows: No, it’s just seasonal allergies, Mr. Junior, sir.

Ivanka: Daddy, can you please turn off your camera when the scarf lady is changing you?

The President: I don’t know how. Just look away.

Junior: That’s what you always used to say to me when you, me and Ivanka shared a hotel room.

The President: Those were perfect hotel stays! 

Meadows: (visibly crying) Can we talk a little about some national security concerns?

The President: We should call you Cryin’ Mark!

Jared Kushner: Sir, you already are using that nickname for Senator Schumer.

The President: Damn it! How about Wailing Meadows?

Junior: That does have a nice ring to it!

Meadows: (trying to control his sobbing) I thought you only had cruel names for Democrats and former staffers?

The President: Trump likes to think ahead. Like with that bug that’s going around right now.

Meadows: The Coronavirus?

The President: Ya, that one. Trump knew it was a CoronaVirus before anyone knew it was a CoronaVirus. Also, when you guys trascriptify this, can you please put a big-size letter for the V on CoronaVirus even though it’s medically inaccurate? Trump knows big letters better than anyone… 

Meadows: The thing I wanted to talk about this morning is a potential environmental threat…

The President: Oh, silly Wailing Meadows! Trump doesn’t give a shit about the environment!

Meadows: Sorry, I mean a potential risk to the Dow Jones…

The President: Oh my god – what is it?

Meadows: It’s a slightly outdated index comprised of a group of the largest companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange to attempt to demonstrate the broad health of the stocks listed on that Exchange. It has often incorrectly become a proxy for general economic health.

The President: Trump doesn’t even understand most of what you just said, but what Trump meant is, “What is the problem with the Dow Jones?” Trump promised the Mar-a-Lago crowd that we would get the Dow up to 30,000 by June.

Meadows: The problem is that due to a massive number of deaths due to the Coronavirus…

The President: It’s waaaaaay less than it could have been if Trump didn’t shut down the border with CHY-NA!

Meadows: Yes, sir, very true. The concern is that there are five nuclear power plants in New York State and with the large number of deaths and illnesses due to Coronavirus, there might not be enough staff to operate them safely. The result could be a huge nuclear accident worse than Three Mile Island. 

The President: Is that where they have those delicious Coney dogs?

Ivanka: No, daddy, that’s Coney Island. Remember you took me there for my 13^thbirthday party on a private boat with my closest blonde friends?

The President: Oh, right! That was a perfect birthday party.

Ivanka: There were a few lawsuits and NDAs… 

Meadows: In any case, we need to form a Task Force to look into the risks. A nuclear meltdown could be catastrophic.

The President: Yes, of course. That would impact my polling numbers! Would there be a chance to do a daily press conference? Think of the ratings…

Meadows: Yes, that would be great, but first I need to staff a Task Force.

Jared: I watched most of Chernobyl, so I think I should probably lead the Task Force. Plus, I have experience with unsafe, toxic environments from my rental apartments.

The President: Great idea, Jar Jar!

Jared: It would be my preference that you don’t call me that, Mr. President, sir.

The President: Why not, Jar Jar?

Jared: It was a character in a movie that we all want to forget.

The President: Which movie?

Jared: Star Wars, Episode I.

The President: Star what?

Jared: Never mind…

Meadows: Please people - I think we need to make sure this doesn’t blow up…

Junior: (laughing loudly) BLOW UP! You said, “blow up” and we’re talking about a nuclear accident. That is frickin’ hilarious!

Meadows: (talking over Junior) Seriously! We need to prevent this – those tree-hugging libtards in California will have a field day with this and the bad publicity could influence some of the purple States.

The President: OK then, let me do one thing here (leans out of frame).

(Trump disconnects from the meeting)

Junior: What happened? We lost Trump!

Meadows: I think he messed up his WiFi. We told him that the power switch on the router was the nuclear launch button to blow up California. I guess we’ll adjourn until tomorrow. Thanks, everyone!

- - End of Conversation - -

Calculating the Popular Vote Difference for the 2020 US Presidential Election

Welcome to my first blog post! 

I’m no expert on Electoral College math, so I’m asking a simple question more focused on the popular vote:

What factors will impact the popular vote difference between the Republican POTUS candidate and the Democrat POTUS candidate in November 2020?

In my view, the math for what November’s vote count looks like is something like this (where T is the number of votes for Trump and D is the number of votes for the Democrat candidate[1]; T₂₀₂₀ represents the votes for Trump in 2020):

T₂₀₂₀ = T₂₀₁₆ - (People that voted for Trump in 2016, but don’t in 2020) + (People that didn’t vote for Trump in 2016, but do in 2020)

and similarly:

D₂₀₂₀ = D₂₀₁₆ - (People that voted Democrat in 2016, but don’t in 2020) + (People that didn’t vote Democrat in 2016, but do in 2020)

This part is mostly obvious, but let’s break down some of the items (with their new variable names in parentheses):

“People that voted for Trump in 2016, but don’t in 2020” (T_minus) is comprised of two subgroups: 

1.     People that choose not to vote at all in 2020 (T_abstain), and

2.     People that choose to change their vote to Democrat (T_badflip)

It’s notable that the first subgroup is a -1 popular vote wise, while the second is a -2 since it takes a vote away from Trump and adds it to the Dem side.

“People that didn’t vote for Trump in 2016, but do in 2020” (T_plus) is similarly comprised of two subgroups: 

1.     People that didn’t vote in 2016, but vote Trump in 2020 (T_new), and

2.     People that voted for Hillary in 2016, but choose Trump in 2020 (T_goodflip)

And, similar to the previous section, the first subgroup gives Trump a +1, the second a +2.

Skipping a bit of written work (take off marks if you need to), we’re left with:

T₂₀₂₀ = T₂₀₁₆ - T_minus + T_plus

T₂₀₂₀ = T₂₀₁₆ - (T_abstain + T_badflip) + (T_new + T_goodflip)

Re-organizing this a little gives:

T₂₀₂₀ = T₂₀₁₆ + T_new + T_goodflip - T_abstain - T_badflip, and for the Dems:

D₂₀₂₀ = D₂₀₁₆ + D_new + D_goodflip - D_abstain - D_badflip

Recognizing that T_goodflip (people that voted for Hillary and now are voting for Trump) is the same as D_badflip(people that voted for Hillary and are now voting for Trump), we can simplify a little:

T₂₀₂₀ = T₂₀₁₆ + T_new + D_badflip - T_abstain - D_goodflip

D₂₀₂₀ = D₂₀₁₆ + D_new + D_goodflip - D_abstain - D_badflip

And re-arrange:

T₂₀₂₀ = T₂₀₁₆ + T_new + D_badflip - T_abstain - D_goodflip

D₂₀₂₀ = D₂₀₁₆ + D_new - D_badflip - D_abstain + D_goodflip

Now, computing the popular vote difference (where a positive number is a D victory, popular vote wise):

Difference₂₀₂₀ = D₂₀₂₀ - T₂₀₂₀

Difference₂₀₂₀ = D₂₀₁₆ + D_new - D_badflip - D_abstain + D_goodflip - (T₂₀₁₆ + T_new + D_badflip - T_abstain - D_goodflip)

Difference₂₀₂₀ = D₂₀₁₆ + D_new - 2D_badflip - D_abstain + 2D_goodflip - T₂₀₁₆ - T_new + T_{abstain, or}

Difference₂₀₂₀ = (D₂₀₁₆ - T₂₀₁₆) + D_new - 2D_badflip - D_abstain + 2D_goodflip - T_new + T_abstain

Knowing that the difference in 2016 was 2,868,686, we’re left with:

Difference₂₀₂₀ = 2,868,686 + D_new - 2D_badflip - D_abstain + 2D_goodflip - T_new + T_abstain

It looks pretty busy, but let’s look at each component part:

·      D_new – how many net new voters will vote Democrat in 2020 (“net new” in the sense that they didn’t vote in 2016). I think that we can assume that it will be significant for several reasons:

1.     Some people stayed home because they just didn’t like Hillary. Presuming that Biden is the nominee and, even acknowledging his perceived shortcoming, it’s hard to imagine him being hated in the way that HRC was in many circles.

2.     Some people stayed home because they thought a Hillary win was “in the bag” – the abject shock of a good portion of the nation after election night suggests that this was a prevailing attitude. This year, those people know what’s at stake.

3.     Some voters that would vote Democrat stayed away because they were pro-Bernie and couldn’t stomach voting for his rival – this somewhat overlaps with #1, but I’m expecting that this will be slightly reduced (I did say slightly) in 2020.

4.     People have watched Trump operate for over three years and those not enamored of the MAGA/KAG movement might show up and vote since they perceive something is at stake for them personally (in a way that they did not in 2016).

·      D_badflip – these are people that voted for Hillary in 2016 and now cast their vote for Trump. I travel in the US, talk to my US friends & family and follow US politics fairly carefully (although, with full disclosure, I follow many more D-friendly sites, accounts, etc., so I might not have the best assessment of this), but I can’t picture too many people in this camp. And remember, this is the killer group because they represent a 2 vote flip – kind of like losing a game late in the season to the team you’re fighting for a playoff spot. 

·      D_abstain – this is the group that voted D in 2016 and now chooses not to vote. Given potential misogyny against Hillary, the dislike of her by many, I think if you voted for her in 2016, you were pretty committed to the party (and her). I don’t see this group as particularly huge, but maybe I’m missing something (not an intentional “abstain” joke).

·      D_goodflip – these people were Trump voters in 2016 and change to Dem voters for 2020. Again, it might be biased by what/whom I follow, but I “feel” like there are a lot of these. People who voted for a well-known business person or the reality show star or for a change or to “drain the swamp” (or they just hated Hillary that much) will have 4 years of Trump’s track record to judge. I have a potentially-biased view of that, but I think this will be a big number and it’s another powerful 2 point switch.

·      T_new – These are people who didn’t vote in 2016, but wake up in 2020 and decide to vote for Trump. I think it’s well-understood that his current base is strongly behind him, but I don’t see much evidence (and I could be wrong) of new people who will show up to vote for him based on what has happened so far in his term (and I believe that was true even before COVID-19).

·      T_abstain – these people voted for Trump in 2020, but stay home in 2020. For some of the same reasons as the “Dgoodflippers”, some will stay home, but in their case, they can’t stomach a vote for the Dems. There could be a large number of these (solely based on my opinion).

So, based on this (and here’s where it gets a lot less mathematical until someone does some unbiased surveys), let’s assume (from the above analysis) that the following are “bigger” numbers:

D_new, D_goodflip, T_abstain

And the following are “smaller” numbers:

D_badflip, D_abstain, T_new

This leaves our equations as (and please ignore anything you learned in Algebra at any level):

Difference₂₀₂₀ = 2,868,686 + big - 2small - small + 2big - small + big

Dangerously grouping like terms:

Difference₂₀₂₀ = 2,868,686 + 4big - 4small

Depending on how big “big” is and how small “small” is, this certainly looks favorable to the Democrats. Do with this what you will – I’m sure that I can be accused of bias in this, but it was simply a thought exercise for me to understand what factors will impact the vote in November. 

And I know that popular vote does not equate to Electoral College success, but I might argue that this math applies (maybe to a greater or lesser extent) in each Electoral College district. I look forward to your comments and thank you for reading all the way to the end!

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[1] I’m intentionally not using H, since there will be a new Dem candidate unless something very crazy happens!